Week Ahead Analysis – 24/7

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Economic Calendar

24/7EUR:
– French Flash Services & Manufacturing PMI
– German Flash Services & Manufacturing PMI

GBP & USD:
– Flash Manufacturing PMI
– Flash Services PMI
25/7USD:
– CB Consumer Confidence
26/7AUD:
– CPI
27/7USD:
– FOMC Statement
– Federal Funds Rate
– FOMC Press Conference
– Advance GDP q/q
– Unemployment Claims

EUR:
– Main Refinancing Rate
– Monetary Policy Statement
– ECB Press Conference
28/7JPY:
– BOJ Outlook Report
– Monetary Policy Statement
– BOJ Press Conference

EUR:
– German Prelim CPI m/m

USD:
– Core PCE Price Index m/m
– Employment Cost Index q/q
– Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Market Outlook

Commodities

USOIL

Weekly

USOIL exhibited bullish moves in the previous trading week, with bulls maintaining dominance and targeting $83 for medium-term price movement. Further upsides are dependent on a breach at $83.

Daily

Price action remains steady above the 15 & 20-Day Moving Averages, displaying strength in daily candlesticks. Bulls continue to dominate in the medium term as long as the price stays above the moving averages. A retracement toward $74 is possible.

4-Hour

Price struggles below a key resistance in the 4-Hour outlook, showing signs of potential short-term reversal. A test of the 0.382 Fib level is expected before an upside continuation. The upside swing setup may be invalidated if support levels break.

Indices

DJ30

Weekly

The previous trading week saw strong bullish moves on DJ30, retesting a strong resistance zone. Further upsides may be capped within this zone, and potential reversals are likely as indicated by overbought RSI.

Daily

Daily timeframe shows weakness as the price approaches the weekly key resistance zone, with candlesticks displaying rejections. Overbought RSI suggests potential reversals. Bears may retest the support around 34,500 if resistance holds.

4-Hour

Candlestick movements in the 4-Hour chart suggest bullish exhaustion. Further price weakness and bearish momentum may build up in the major resistance zone. An upside breach of resistance at 35,500 may invalidate the bearish bias.

Currencies

USDCAD

Weekly

The major support zone in the weekly timeframe remains in sight for bears, while bulls are on the defence. Bulls need to reclaim support above 1.3350 to alleviate bearish pressure.

Daily

Price sits below the 15 & 20-Day Moving Average, post Break of Structure (BOS) of its previous structure low. Further upsides may be anticipated if moving averages show an upside breach, with bulls attempting to test resistance at 1.3380.

4-Hour

Price is currently between the 0.382-0.5 Fib level, showing signs of weakness. Overbought RSI may favour bears. Traders can observe Fib levels between 0.5-0.618 for potential moves. Bears target 1.3090 and 1.3010 on a bearish scenario, while an upside breach may invalidate the setup.

EURUSD

Weekly

A major resistance zone faced an upside breach, maintaining a bullish bias. Price attempts a retest at the previously broken-out structure, acting as current support. Further upsides may be anticipated, while bears need to push beyond 1.0820.

Daily

The daily timeframe shows a bearish retracement, but overall strong bullish sentiment remains. Further upsides are favoured as long as the price stays above the 15 & 20-Day Moving Average. The target for an upside swing move will be at 1.1500.

4-Hour

Consolidations above the 0.382 Fib level serve as potential static support. Observing price reactions at Fib levels will guide the next potential moves. A downside breach of the 0.618 Fib level may invalidate the bullish setup.

GBPUSD

Weekly

Previous trading week had been bearish upon retesting a major weekly resistance level. Upsides still remain favourable in the long term if the major support zone at around 1.2460-1.2660 holds. The pair sits between a range, allowing for both short-term bearish and bullish scenarios.

Daily

Price shows a previous Break of Structure (BOS), pulling back to retest the previously broken-out structure as current support. The RSI indicates a potential demand zone above the moving averages, suggesting a possible upside move. Bears may retest major support at 1.2460-1.2660 if moving averages face a downside breach.

4-Hour

The 4-Hour timeframe demonstrates a strong move to the previously broken-out structure, acting as current support, with consolidations above the moving averages. Upsides are currently favoured. If the setup remains valid, bulls may retest the previous high at around 1.3140.

AUDUSD

Weekly

Price made a strong rebound on a major weekly support zone, displaying signs of strength. Upside moves remain within a tight range between its demand zone and a respected descending trendline. Further upside depends on breaching this trendline.

Daily

Price is above the 15 & 20 Day Moving Averages, with previous bearish moves fueled by dollar strength. Observing price reactions above the moving averages will guide next potential moves. Bulls maintain short- and medium-term dominance as long as price stays above the moving averages.

4-Hour

The 4-Hour timeframe shows strong moves to the downside, with price attempting to hold support at the 0.618 Fib level. This level remains an indecision zone, and bears may test lower support levels should it break.

BTCUSD

Weekly

The asset consolidated over several weeks since reaching its 1-year high. Further upsides depend on breaching a key resistance at 32,000. Bears are likely to defend this level and may test lower support levels before continuing the upside move.

Daily

Price faced significant rejections upon reaching its highest point for the year, with bears defending the key resistance. Bears will retest Fib levels between 0.382 – 0.618 before resuming the upside move. A further downside may be anticipated if bears breach the Fib levels.

4-Hour

Price sits below the 15 & 20-Day Moving Average, suggesting potential short-term downside moves. Candlestick patterns point to short-term bearishness. Bulls need to breach the current structure high to alleviate bearish pressure.

Written & Prepared by,
David X

*Please Note: The above market analysis provides a concise overview of the key market movements and potential setups. Traders should conduct further analysis and consider risk management strategies before making any trading decisions.

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