In this weekly technical analysis, we will explore the current market outlook for USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, US500, and XAUUSD. We’ll analyze key trends, support and resistance levels, and possible price movements based on chart patterns and technical indicators. Please remember that this analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade at your own risk.
High-Impact News Lined Up For The Week
| 9/8 | NZD: Inflation Expectations q/q |
| 10/8 | USD: CPI, Unemployment Claims |
| 11/8 | GBP: GDP m/mUSD: PPI, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
Technical Analysis
USDJPY:
Weekly – Bearish:
USDJPY is presently situated within its weekly resistance zone, and prior candlestick indications imply significant selling pressure as the price enters this zone. As long as the weekly resistance level holds, a bearish outlook remains favourable.
Daily – Neutral:
USDJPY has recently undergone a Change of Character (CHoCH), displaying signs of weakness and indicating a distribution phase. The price currently rests above the 15 & 20-Day Moving Average, granting shorter-term dominance to the bulls. As long as the support around 141.7 remains intact, the bulls might endeavour to test the major resistance around 145.
4-Hour – Bullish:
USDJPY experienced an immediate rebound upon testing a support level at 138.10, driven by robust bearish momentum, resulting in a break of its recent high. At present, the price remains above the 0.382 Fib Level, and further upside potential is favoured as long as the 0.382-0.618 Fib level acts as support. The bulls might be inclined to test the recent high and possibly go beyond it.
GBPUSD:
Weekly – Neutral:
GBPUSD has witnessed a series of bearish weeks following a reaction from its major weekly resistance zone. The price displayed consistent downward movements, retesting its previously broken level. Additional downsides could be limited at the support zone ranging from 1.2440 to 1.2672. Should this support zone hold, it may attract buying interest, prompting the bulls to make efforts in pushing the price higher.
Daily – Neutral:
The price is currently positioned below the 15 & 20-Day Moving Average, indicating a short-term bearish dominance. Notably, the current support zone exhibits some buying interest. However, traders should approach shorting near this zone with caution.
4-Hour – Bearish:
GBPUSD experienced a Break of Structure (BOS), showcasing robust bearish momentum for the short-term trajectory. The previous support, now turned resistance, was tested, leading to extended downward movements. As long as the psychological resistance level at 1.2800 and resistance at 1.2890 remain intact, bears will continue to exert pressure on the price. The RSI corroborates the bearish sentiment, signalling an overbought condition once again.
AUDUSD:
Weekly – Neutral:
AUDUSD is presently positioned above a significant weekly demand zone, where prior indications point to robust buying interest. However, the past trading weeks witnessed a bearish trend. Although further downside movements seem likely, potential support may be found around the major level at 0.6420. If this demand zone holds, it could pave the way for potential upsides.
Daily – Neutral:
On the Daily timeframe, the RSI indicates an oversold confluence, which could favor bullish traders. However, it’s worth noting that previous daily candlesticks have shown relative weakness, lacking the confidence to drive prices higher. Further reactions in this zone may be necessary to speculate on the next potential moves. As of now, bearish sentiment remains predominant.
4-Hour – Bearish:
The RSI indicates an overbought condition, while the price remains below the 0.382 Fib Level and has shown reversal confirmations, favouring bears. For the short-term outlook, bulls would need to reclaim support above the 0.682 Fib level to ease bearish pressure. At present, bears have their sights set on potential targets at 0.6515 and 0.6456.
US500:
Weekly – Bearish:
During the previous trading week, US500 closed in the red, displaying a bearish engulfing pattern after reacting to a major weekly resistance zone. As a result, bears might attempt to test lower static support levels at 4380 and beyond. Currently, upsides are limited by the weekly key resistance, and any further upsides would depend on a breach at this level.
Daily – Bearish:
Price is currently consolidated at the weekly resistance zone, marked by an Automatic Reaction (AR) – a sudden sell-off reaction that signals the start of a distribution phase. Traders are advised to be cautious, as the price action indicates potential bearishness as long as the current resistance holds.
4-Hour – Bearish:
On the 4-hour timeframe, the price action exhibits weakness, characterized by strong bearishness upon reacting to the weekly resistance zone and breaching below the 15 & 20-Day Moving Average. Additionally, the price action shows signs of struggling to regain support above the 15 and 20-Day Moving Averages, further supporting a bearish outlook.
XAUUSD:
Weekly – Bearish:
XAUUSD’s price action portrays weakness, evident by significant rejections upon testing its major resistance level. Subsequently, the reaction led to a downturn and signals the potential for further downside moves. The previous trading week closed in the red, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend for the upcoming week.
Daily – Neutral:
Price for XAUUSD is currently below the 15 & 20-Day Moving Average, indicating the likelihood of further downsides as long as it remains below the moving average. There is a possibility of downsides being halted at its nearest support level around 1900, and the extent of further declines may depend on the support level’s strength. To alleviate bearish sentiment, bulls would need to regain support above 1980.
4-Hour – Bearish:
Price for XAUUSD previously experienced a Change of Character (CHoCH), which led to increased bearish pressure, resulting in Lower Lows and a Break of Structure (BOS). These developments indicate the potential for further downsides. As long as the resistance levels at 1955 and 1970 remain intact, the bearish outlook remains favored. Traders should closely monitor these resistance levels for any signs of a potential reversal.
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Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade at your own risk.
We have analyzed key technical aspects of USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, US500, and XAUUSD for the current trading week. The charts reveal various trends, support and resistance levels, and potential price movements that can help traders make informed decisions. As always, exercise caution and stay updated with real-time data to stay ahead in the market. Happy trading!
Written by,
David X
