Week Ahead Analysis

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The Week Ahead

Economic Calendar

Feb 28th

  • JPY – BOJ Gov Designate Ueda Speaks
  • CAD – GDP
  • USD – CB Consumer Confidence

March 1st

  • GBP – BOE
  • USD – PMI

March 3rd

  • USD – PMI

Market Analysis

US30

Daily

On the daily timeframe, the market structure is currently in an upward trend as long as the Demand Zone between 32,200-31,890 holds. However, the price is showing signs of potential downside movement towards major support levels and a previously broken support level, now acting as resistance at 33,000, which is a significant level to watch.

There is a possibility of a retest at the previously broken level with a potential downside target of 31,890. However, this scenario could be invalidated if the price gains momentum and moves back above the decisive level of 33,000.

Traders should keep an eye on the Demand Zone between 32,200-31,890 as it remains a crucial level to consider for long positions, should there be signs of a potential reversal.

4H

Analyzing the 4H outlook, we can see a strong bearish momentum after breaking the ascending trendline structure and continuing its bearish movements. This indicates a continuation for the downside as long as the price remains below the descending trendline structure.

We may witness a retest towards the descended trendline or rest at the resistance level of 33100 before continuing the bearish movements. Keep in mind that this setup could go invalid if the price gains upside momentum and regains support beyond 33200.

USDJPY

Daily

The Daily timeframe reveals a clear uptrend with a broken descended trendline level and a CHoCH from corrective downside movement.

Last week, price broke above its key resistance at 134.6, leading to strong upside momentum, approaching its next resistance level at 138.3. A pullback to psychological support at 134.00 may occur before a longer-term continuation to the upside.

4H

On the 4H chart, price has broken a structure with strong bullish momentum. A potential pullback towards the ascended trendline level may occur before a continuation to the upside, which could be limited to the key resistance level at 137.5. A breakout above this level could indicate further upside potential.

GBPJPY

Daily

Price experienced a significant downside move last year, breaking major support levels and has yet to fully recover. Currently, on the bigger picture, price is in a corrective phase to the upside, but appears limited to its nearest key resistance level at 164.5. This level may serve as a strong reversal point, leading to a potential downturn once again.

4H

On the 4H timeframe, a potential upside movement towards the next key resistance level at 164.5 is indicated, supporting the Daily analysis. A previous CHoCH from the downside movement followed by a BOS suggests a bullish momentum.

We may see a pullback to the trendline level before price continues its upside move, with 164-164.5 being a potential target for traders to watch closely

GBPUSD

Daily

Earlier this month, the price broke its decisive support level and turned it into a key resistance, resulting in further downside movements.

Despite sideways movements in recent weeks, the daily timeframe suggests a continuation of the downward momentum, with the next major support level at 1.174 being a longer-term target. Additionally, a Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside during its sideways movements adds to the bearish momentum.

4H

On the 4H timeframe, price has retraced to the 0.618 level, indicating potential downside movements towards the 1.272 Fib extension level at 1.1854. A retracement to the descended trendline could occur before the move to the downside. A break above the trendline and support above 1.2050 could invalidate this analysis, and even fuel further movements to the upside.

XAUUSD

Daily

On the Daily timeframe, the market structure shows an uptrend as long as the key support level at 1780 remains intact. However, if this support level fails, it could potentially shift the market structure to a downtrend.

In the shorter term, the current bearish momentum suggests a possible retest of the nearest support level, with the potential for a significant reversal at this level, leading to a continuation of the natural move to the upside.

4H

On the 4H timeframe, the current market structure suggests the possibility of further downside moves, with continued BOS and trendline validation adding to the bearish momentum. However, this outlook could potentially shift if we see price break its descended trendline level and regain support above 1828, indicating a potential shift towards an uptrend.

Ru Yi 
Financial Market Analyst

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