Week Ahead Analysis- 34

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Economic Calendar

TuesdayFlash Manufacturing PMI for US, UK, Germany and France
ThursdayUS GDP, US Unemployment claims
Friday1st day of Jackson Hole Symposium, Core PCE Price Index and Fed Powell speaks

* Only events deemed important by our Technical Analysts are included here. Please refer to Trading Central’s Economic Calendar for the full schedule.

* Only events deemed important by our Technical Analysts are included here. Please refer to Trading Central’s Economic Calendar for the full schedule. 

Key Inflation Data

The PCE Price Index is scheduled to be released this Friday, which may or may not confirm the weaker inflation from the CPI print earlier last week. FYI, PCE Price Index excludes food and energy and is more preferred by the Fed as a measure to gauge inflation trends. If actual prints lower than the forecasted 4.7%, it may reinforce the notion of slowing inflation. Regardless of the actual data, it will most likely influence Fed Chair’s comments during the Symposium. 

Jackson Hole Symposium

In case you are wondering, the Jackson Hole Symposium is an annual conference that is attended by central bankers, finance ministers and academics and other influential figures to discuss everything economics and current policies. This event will garner most of the attention this week as it could shake up the markets and the speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell may reset market expectations. We also believe that the main topics to be discussed include the impact of recent rate hikes by various central banks and the risks of recessions. 


The market volatility is expected to be medium to low amidst key events towards the end of the week and it is also the summer season!




We were right on time as EURUSD touches parity again after 5 weeks.  Price is looking extremely bearish now with lower highs and lower lows being made. The downward momentum is decent as well which increases the likelihood of a support break.  0.9900 will be the next target if the support fails to hold …

Precious Metals



The bears are starting to gain control on Gold as dollar strengthens. There were not much hesitation at 1745 support as it was broken swiftly, with 1711 as the next support zone. If the price drops quick enough, the support may also coincide with the bearish trendline. 

We do not have any directional bias for these pairs as we would much prefer to wait for hints and signals during the Symposium while skipping the volatile markets. 


Crude Oil


Oil gapped and traded lower as the market opened for the week. The price slump could be attributed to the stronger dollar and fears over economic slowdown with China’s retail sales and industrial output came out way lower than analysts’ expectations. 

There is no significant changes to the price action on USOIL as it is still trading nicely within the bearish channel. Jackson Hole Symposium is likely to increase the volatility on oil too. 

US Stocks Markets

Dow Jones 30

DJ30 Daily

Dow Jones accelerated losses into the end of the week, erasing most of the gains made earlier during the past week. The bearish sentiment continued pre market which pushed price to 33300 support. Taking a look at the bigger picture, the stock market index is still on the bullish side with the Symposium acting as a major catalyst that may steer the market into a different direction.

Ru Yi 
Financial Market Analyst

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