Week Ahead Analysis – 30

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Economic Calendar

DayEvents
Monday
Tuesday
WednesdayAUD CPI, FOMC statement
ThursdayAdvance GDP- USD
FridayCore PCE Price Index

FOMC statement will be the key highlight for this coming week as investors are waiting for the impending rate hike from the Fed. We are going to discuss USD related pairs in this week ahead analysis to prepare you for the event. 

Gold

Gold Daily Chart

The yellow metal has had a decent recovery towards the end of last week as we see a near $60 bounce from the key support of $1680, which shows that the demand is still strong at that level.

Currently, it is trading above $1722 minor resistance and it seems like the recovery may continue for a little while, with the next target at $1760. If the Fed do not make any surprise move this Wednesday we may see gold following through on its bearish momentum and test $1680 again.

Technical LevelsPrice Zone
R21785
R11760
S11722
S21680

EURUSD

EURUSD Daily Chart

EURUSD has been stuck in the 1.0150- 1.0250 range for a couple of days now. Investors are indecisive on where the pair should go amid Fed policy statement. We have mapped out two scenarios on where the price can potentially move, but the probability of a down move is greater provided that the pair is currently in a downtrend.

1.0350 is our primary target in the short term, but the larger picture may still be highly dependent on the FOMC meeting in two days.

Technical LevelsPrice Zone
R21.0650
R11.0350
S11.0000
S20.9900

Crude oil

USOIL H4 Chart

Apparently, US crude did a fake out to our scenario one and instead followed the trajectory of scenario 2. 

It extended its losses as investors are worried that an increase in interest rates by the Fed may negatively impact oil demand by restricting economic activities. Some other bearish fundamental developments include a tweak in Russian sanctions that allows them to trade with third countries and Libya scheduled to increase oil production to 1.2M bpd in the next two weeks. 

US oil is trading on the support at $94 but the level seems brittle. $90 will be the next target level to look for a potential bounce and recovery. 

Technical LevelsPrice Zone
R2100.00
R198.50
S194.00
S290.00

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